Virlogeux et al. BMC Medicine (2017) 15:217, DOI 10.1186/s12916-017-0979-1

BACKGROUND:

HCV treatment uptake has drastically increased in HIV-HCV coinfected patients in France since directacting antiviral (DAA) treatment approval, resulting in HCV cure in 63% of all HIV-HCV patients by the end of 2015. We investigated the impact of scaling-up DAA on HCV prevalence in the whole HIV population and in various risk groups over the next 10 years in France using a transmission dynamic compartmental model.

RESULTS:

On January 1, 2016, 156,811 patients were registered as infected with HIV in France (24,900 undiagnosed patients) of whom 7938 (5.1%) had detectable HCV-RNA (722 undiagnosed patients). Assuming a treatment coverage (TC) rate of 30%/year (i.e., the observed rate in 2015), model projections showed that HCV prevalence among HIV patients is expected to drop to 0.81% in 2026. Sub-analyses showed a similar decrease of HIV-HCV prevalence in most risk groups, including LR MSM. Due to higher infection and reinfection rates, predicted prevalence in HR MSM remained stable from 6.96% in 2016 to 6.34% in 2026. Increasing annual TC rate in HR MSM to 50/70% would decrease HCV prevalence in this group to 2.35/1.25% in 2026. With a 30% TC rate, undiagnosed patients ould account for 34% of HCV infections in 2026.

CONCLUSIONS:

The model suggests that DAA could nearly eliminate coinfection in France within 10 years for most risk groups, including LR MSM. Elimination in HR MSM will require increased treatment coverage.