The effects of demographic change on disease transmission

The demographic structure of populations in both more developed and less developed countries is changing: increases in life expectancy and declining fertility have led to older populations and smaller households. The implications of these demographic changes for the spread and control of infectious diseases are not fully understood. While reasonable over short time frames, for example Melioidosis and RSV, this assumption is clearly unrealistic when considering the long term dynamics of an endemic disease.

2019

• Modeling household dynamics on Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV)

• A Population Dynamic Model to Assess the Diabetes Screening and Reporting Programs and Project the Burden of Undiagnosed Diabetes in Thailand

• Modelling population dynamics and seasonal movement to assess and predict the burden of melioidosis

• Utilizing general human movement models to predict the spread of emerging infectious diseases in resource poor settings

2018

• Model-based estimates of transmission of respiratory syncytial virus within households

• On the Relative Role of Different Age Groups During Epidemics Associated With Respiratory Syncytial Virus.

• Melioidosis in Thailand: Present and Future.

2017

• Estimating incidence and prevalence rates of chronic diseases using disease modeling

• Seasonal Population Movements and the Surveillance and Control of Infectious Diseases

2015

• The effects of demographic change on disease transmission and vaccine impact in a household structured population.

2014

• Comparison of type 2 diabetes prevalence estimates in Saudi Arabia from a validated Markov model against the International Diabetes Federation and other modelling studies

2013

• Modeling the effect of transient populations on epidemics in Washington DC

2011

• Sensitivity of Household Transmission to Household Contact Structure and Size

2009

• The Impact of the Demographic Transition on Dengue